Worcester · 7:02pm

Copybet Support Safer Gambling Maiden Hurdle Race (ARC Summer Novices' Brush Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)

Hurdle 2m 7f GOOD, Good to firm in places (GoingStick: 6.7) Class 4 4yo+ 6 runners

Tight read Mr Rafiki just edges it from Jorah d'Alma and Walkingtheline — top 3 covered by 12 RPR. Field updated — 2 non-runners removed.

This looks a tightly-matched class 4 hurdle over 2m 7f at Worcester, with no confirmed front-runner and a muddling, tactical gallop likely. Mr Rafiki heads the figures (recent RPR 114) but is unproven at this trip and weakened late last time, raising a stamina question. Jorah d'Alma is the main danger, coming here with improving form figures and only a length behind Mr Rafiki on the numbers. Snow Is In The Sky is lightly raced and has the profile to progress, while Walkingtheline and Loman Lady (both recent RPR 102) are expected to race mid-pack on breeding. With the principals so closely matched, tactical speed and positioning could prove decisive.

The key questions

How will the race be run?

No confirmed front-runner — likely a muddling, tactical gallop, where a handy early pitch and tactical speed matter.

Does Mr Rafiki stay 2m 7f?

It's the highest-rated but unproven beyond today's trip — a stamina question over this distance.

Any unexposed improver?

Snow Is In The Sky is lightly-raced with a profile to progress — the type to respect on potential.

Who's the main danger?

Jorah d'Alma is the chief threat to Mr Rafiki, with the form figures climbing — and on our figures there's barely a length between them.

Pace map — who goes forward, who waits

Leads 0

—

Prominent 1

0Jorah d'Alma

Mid-pack 3

0Walkingtheline

0Loman Lady

0Witheros Hill

Held up 2

0Mr Rafiki

0Snow Is In The Sky

Pace confidence: 50%

What the data likes (our composite read — not tips)

No. 1 read Mr Rafiki Held up, comes late

Stall 0 · Trainer Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill · Jockey Jonjo O'Neill Jr.

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb. The stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

114 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 11% · Jockey 14%

strike rate at Worcester

Last time out

RPR 114

most recent run

Last 4 starts — oldest to most recent

4444 last time ←

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 11%, jockey 14%

Stable hot (3/10, 30%)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

2 Jorah d'Alma Races prominently

Stall 0 · Trainer Fergal O'Brien · Jockey Liam Harrison

Reliable and on the up — placed in 3 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing.

Ability rating

104 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 17% · Jockey 23%

strike rate at Worcester

Last time out

RPR 102

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

112PU3F3 last time ←

GroundYet to win on good (0 from 3)

Course1 run at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 17%, jockey 23%

Weakened in the closing stages last time

3 Walkingtheline Settles midfieldest

Stall 0 · Trainer S Cameron · Jockey Ben Poste

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb.

Ability rating

102 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer % · Jockey 8%

strike rate at Worcester

Last time out

RPR 102

most recent run

Last 5 starts — oldest to most recent

4364PU last time ←

GroundYet to win on good (0 from 3)

Course1 run at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: jockey 8%, this jockey-trainer team 9%

4 Loman Lady Settles midfieldest

Stall 0 · Trainer Dan Skelton · Jockey Harry Skelton

Holds solid claims on these figures. The stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

102

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 24% · Jockey 28%

strike rate at Worcester

Last time out

RPR 85

most recent run

Last 2 starts — oldest to most recent

16 last time ←

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 24%, jockey 28%

Stable hot (5/23, 22%)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

5 Snow Is In The Sky Held up, comes late

Stall 0 · Trainer Gary Brown · Jockey Richie McLernon

Holds solid claims on these figures. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 15% · Jockey 11%

strike rate at Worcester

Last time out

RPR 2

most recent run

Last 2 starts — oldest to most recent

79 last time ←

GroundBred for it — the sire's runners strike at 15.0% on good

FitnessReturns from 123 days off the track

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 15%, jockey 11%

Long layoff (123d)

Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result

6 Witheros Hill Settles midfieldest

Stall 0 · Trainer Laura Horsfall · Jockey Kevin Brogan

Has form to go on — placed in 4 of his last 5 starts.

Ability rating

—

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 8% · Jockey 9%

strike rate at Worcester

Last time out

—

most recent run

Last 5 starts — oldest to most recent

23P03 last time ←

GroundBred for it — the sire's runners strike at 14.0% on good

FitnessBack from a long absence — 459 days off, fitness to prove

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 8%, jockey 9%

Long layoff (459d)

Figures from results history (RPR/TS), pace from running-style history, connections from trainer/jockey stats, breeding from sire aptitude. Shrunk for small samples. Information only, not betting advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.