Thirsk · 4:10pm

Meijer Celebration Cup Handicap Stakes

Flat (Turf) 7f GOOD TO FIRM, Good in places (GoingStick: 8.0) Class 6 3yo+ 9 runners

Tight read Fair Isle Sioux just edges it from Coconut Bay and Captain Cess — top 3 covered by 15 RPR. Field updated — 1 non-runner removed.

Coconut Bay is the only confirmed front-runner and, with a favourable draw, could control a steady pace if left alone in front. High draws are statistically favoured over mid at Thirsk, with an impact value of 1.34 and a 53% average of beating rivals. Fair Isle Sioux is lightly raced, drops in class, and has a profile that suggests further progress is possible. On recent figures, there is little to separate Fair Isle Sioux and Coconut Bay, with Captain Cess and Emerald Army also closely matched in a tightly contested race.

The key questions

How will the race be run?

Coconut Bay is the only confirmed front-runner, so expect a steady gallop the leader can control, and is favourably drawn (mid is best over this trip here) — a powerful setup if left alone up front.

Does the draw matter?

High draws are favoured over mid at Thirsk (impact value 1.34, beating 53% of rivals on average).

Any unexposed improver?

Fair Isle Sioux is lightly-raced with a profile to progress — the type to respect on potential.

Anyone well-treated?

Fair Isle Sioux drops in class — often a positive trainer angle.

Who's the main danger?

Coconut Bay is the chief threat to Fair Isle Sioux, with the form figures climbing — and on our figures there's barely a length between them.

Pace map — who goes forward, who waits

Leads 1

4Coconut Bay

Prominent 2

3Captain Cess

5Elashgar

Mid-pack 2

10Fair Isle Sioux

7Crown Of Dreams

Held up 4

6Emerald Army

2Forever Twenty

9Night Emperor

1Misemerald

Pace confidence: 89%

Draw & pace bias — impact value >1.0 = favoured

High draws are favoured over mid at Thirsk (impact value 1.34, beating 53% of rivals on average).

Low draw

IV 0.44

44% rivals beaten · n=175

Mid draw

IV 1.23

52% rivals beaten · n=195

High draw

IV 1.34

53% rivals beaten · n=250

What the data likes (our composite read — not tips)

No. 1 read Fair Isle Sioux Settles midfieldest

Stall 10 · Trainer Adam Nicol · Jockey Cam Hardie

Holds solid claims on these figures. Drops in class, often a positive sign; the stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 18% · Jockey 5%

strike rate at Thirsk

Last time out

RPR 66

most recent run

Last 2 starts — oldest to most recent

65 last time ←

GroundBred for it — the sire's runners strike at 17.4% on firm

Course1 run at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 18%, jockey 5%

DrawDrawn 10 (high third) — favoured here (impact value 1.34)

Drops in class (C4→C6)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

2 Coconut Bay Likely to lead

Stall 4 · Trainer Tristan Davidson · Jockey Jason Hart

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb. The stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

61 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 10% · Jockey 11%

strike rate at Thirsk

Last time out

RPR 51

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

8311743 last time ←

GroundProven on firm — won 2 of 10

DistanceHas won around 7f — 6 from 43

Course1 run at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 10%, jockey 11%

DrawDrawn 4 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.23)

Stable hot (3/10, 30%)

3 Captain Cess Races prominently

Stall 3 · Trainer Declan Carroll · Jockey Zak Wheatley

Reliable and on the up — placed in 3 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing.

Ability rating

62 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 16% · Jockey 10%

strike rate at Thirsk

Last time out

RPR 59

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

3412623 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 7f (0 from 1)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 16%, jockey 10%

DrawDrawn 3 (low third) — against the draw bias (impact value 0.44)

4 Emerald Army Held up, comes late

Stall 6 · Trainer Ruth Carr · Jockey James Sullivan

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb.

Ability rating

62 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 9% · Jockey 6%

strike rate at Thirsk

Last time out

RPR 58

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

542286 last time ←

GroundYet to win on firm (0 from 7)

DistanceHas won around 7f — 2 from 15

CourseCourse winner — 1 from 5 here

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 9%, jockey 6%

DrawDrawn 6 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.23)

Kept on last time — a stronger gallop or longer trip may suit

5 Forever Twenty Held up, comes late

Stall 2 · Trainer Ivan Furtado · Jockey Alex Jary(3)

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb.

Ability rating

57 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 10% · Jockey 7%

strike rate at Thirsk

Last time out

RPR 57

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

9736103 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 7f (0 from 5)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 10%, jockey 7%

DrawDrawn 2 (low third) — against the draw bias (impact value 0.44)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

6 Night Emperor Held up, comes late

Stall 9 · Trainer Tina Jackson · Jockey Joanna Mason

Holds solid claims on these figures.

Ability rating

54 steady

recent best — career high 64 in 2024

This track

Trainer 6% · Jockey 10%

strike rate at Thirsk

Last time out

RPR 54

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

678644 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 7f (0 from 2)

Course3 runs at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 6%, jockey 10%

DrawDrawn 9 (high third) — favoured here (impact value 1.34)

Kept on last time — a stronger gallop or longer trip may suit

7 Misemerald Held up, comes late

Stall 1 · Trainer Philip Kirby · Jockey Clifford Lee

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb.

Ability rating

51 improving

recent best — career high 78 in 2024

This track

Trainer 6% · Jockey 13%

strike rate at Thirsk

Last time out

RPR 51

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

10146623 last time ←

GroundHas won on firm — 1 from 7

DistanceHas won around 7f — 1 from 18

Course2 runs at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 6%, jockey 13%

DrawDrawn 1 (low third) — against the draw bias (impact value 0.44)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

8 Crown Of Dreams Settles midfield

Stall 7 · Trainer Ivan Furtado · Jockey Silvestre De Sousa

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb. Drops in class, often a positive sign.

Ability rating

53 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 10% · Jockey 18%

strike rate at Thirsk

Last time out

RPR 49

most recent run

Last 3 starts — oldest to most recent

6410 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 7f (0 from 2)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 10%, jockey 18%

DrawDrawn 7 (high third) — favoured here (impact value 1.34)

Drops in class (C4→C6)

9 Elashgar Races prominently

Stall 5 · Trainer Kevin & Lauren Frost · Jockey William Pyle

A model of consistency — placed in 3 of his last 6. The stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

58 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 29% · Jockey 9%

strike rate at Thirsk

Last time out

RPR 30

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

8312106 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 7f (0 from 1)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 29%, jockey 9%

DrawDrawn 5 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.23)

Figures from results history (RPR/TS), pace from running-style history, connections from trainer/jockey stats, breeding from sire aptitude. Shrunk for small samples. Information only, not betting advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.