Thirsk · 3:03pm

Sell Your Business With Anderson Barrowcliff Handicap Stakes

Flat (Turf) 5f GOOD TO FIRM, Good in places (GoingStick: 8.0) Class 5 3yo 9 runners

Solid read Straight Ahead is our pick, with Vinciamo the main danger.

Vinciamo and Under The Radar are expected to set an even pace in this 5f sprint on firm ground at Thirsk. Mid draws hold a statistical edge here, with an impact value of 1.21 and a 49% average of beating rivals. Straight Ahead drops in class, a move that has often worked well for the stable, and rates a solid favourite, though Vinciamo—whose recent form figures are improving—looks the main danger. Yellow Diamonds and Simba's Pride also have claims on recent ratings.

The key questions

How will the race be run?

Vinciamo and Under The Radar should ensure an even gallop.

Does the draw matter?

Mid draws are favoured over sprint at Thirsk (impact value 1.21, beating 49% of rivals on average).

Anyone well-treated?

Straight Ahead drops in class — often a positive trainer angle.

Who's the main danger?

Vinciamo is the chief threat to Straight Ahead, with the form figures climbing.

Pace map — who goes forward, who waits

Leads 2

2Vinciamo

4Under The Radar

Prominent 7

8Straight Ahead

9Yellow Diamonds

5Simba's Pride

3Angel Numbers

6Houndhill

7Empress Olivia

1Davorge Nation

Mid-pack 0

—

Held up 0

—

Pace confidence: 100%

Draw & pace bias — impact value >1.0 = favoured

Mid draws are favoured over sprint at Thirsk (impact value 1.21, beating 49% of rivals on average).

Low draw

IV 0.97

46% rivals beaten · n=245

Mid draw

IV 1.21

49% rivals beaten · n=264

High draw

IV 1.08

54% rivals beaten · n=343

What the data likes (our composite read — not tips)

No. 1 read Straight Ahead Races prominently

Stall 8 · Trainer Craig Lidster · Jockey Clifford Lee

A model of consistency — placed in 3 of his last 6. Drops in class, often a positive sign.

Ability rating

81 steady

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 13% · Jockey 13%

strike rate at Thirsk

Last time out

RPR 76

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

2141148 last time ←

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 2 of 7 around 5f

Course2 runs at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 13%, jockey 13%

DrawDrawn 8 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.08)

Drops in class (C4→C5)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

2 Vinciamo Likely to lead

Stall 2 · Trainer Kevin Ryan · Jockey Tom Eaves

Reliable and on the up — placed in 4 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing.

Ability rating

86 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 8% · Jockey 7%

strike rate at Thirsk

Last time out

RPR 77

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

336292 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 5f (0 from 6)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 8%, jockey 7%

DrawDrawn 2 (low third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.97)

Kept on last time — a stronger gallop or longer trip may suit

3 Yellow Diamonds Races prominently

Stall 9 · Trainer Julie Camacho · Jockey Ryan Sexton

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb.

Ability rating

84 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 9% · Jockey 10%

strike rate at Thirsk

Last time out

RPR 64

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

2113444 last time ←

DistanceHas won around 5f — 1 from 9

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 9%, jockey 10%

DrawDrawn 9 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.08)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

4 Simba's Pride Races prominently

Stall 5 · Trainer Michael Dods · Jockey Sean Kirrane

A model of consistency — placed in 4 of his last 6.

Ability rating

79 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 9% · Jockey 9%

strike rate at Thirsk

Last time out

RPR 66

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

121543 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 5f (0 from 3)

Course5 runs at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 9%, jockey 9%

DrawDrawn 5 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.21)

5 Angel Numbers Races prominently

Stall 3 · Trainer Ruth Carr · Jockey James Sullivan

Form has dipped a little of late, so needs to bounce back.

Ability rating

78 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 9% · Jockey 6%

strike rate at Thirsk

Last time out

RPR 65

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

252774 last time ←

GroundYet to win on firm (0 from 3)

DistanceHas won around 5f — 1 from 13

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 9%, jockey 6%

DrawDrawn 3 (low third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.97)

6 Houndhill Races prominently

Stall 6 · Trainer Nigel Tinkler · Jockey Alex Jary(3)

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb.

Ability rating

72 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 9% · Jockey 7%

strike rate at Thirsk

Last time out

RPR 66

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

26811011 last time ←

GroundYet to win on firm (0 from 3)

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 4 around 5f

Course1 run at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 9%, jockey 7%

DrawDrawn 6 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.21)

7 Empress Olivia Races prominently

Stall 7 · Trainer Mark Walford · Jockey Jack Garritty

Form has dipped a little of late, so needs to bounce back. Drops in class, often a positive sign.

Ability rating

72 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 12% · Jockey 8%

strike rate at Thirsk

Last time out

RPR 55

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

62111413 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 5f (0 from 4)

Course2 runs at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 12%, jockey 8%

DrawDrawn 7 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.08)

Drops in class (C4→C5)

8 Under The Radar Likely to lead

Stall 4 · Trainer Tim Easterby · Jockey Duran Fentiman

Form has dipped a little of late, so needs to bounce back.

Ability rating

76 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 12% · Jockey 6%

strike rate at Thirsk

Last time out

RPR 39

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

285669 last time ←

DistanceHas won around 5f — 1 from 11

CourseCourse winner — 1 from 3 here

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 12%, jockey 6%

DrawDrawn 4 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.21)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

9 Davorge Nation Races prominently

Stall 1 · Trainer Declan Carroll · Jockey Zak Wheatley

Form has dipped a little of late, so needs to bounce back.

Ability rating

66 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 16% · Jockey 10%

strike rate at Thirsk

Last time out

RPR 44

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

6101376 last time ←

GroundYet to win on firm (0 from 3)

DistanceHas won around 5f — 1 from 7

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 16%, jockey 10%

DrawDrawn 1 (low third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.97)

Figures from results history (RPR/TS), pace from running-style history, connections from trainer/jockey stats, breeding from sire aptitude. Shrunk for small samples. Information only, not betting advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.