Leopardstown · 7:10pm

BOYLE Sports Meld Stakes (Group 3)

Flat (Turf) 1m 1f GOOD, Good to firm in places Class 1 3yo+ · Group 3 6 runners

Tight read Snellen just edges it from Geryon and Adelaide River — top 3 covered by 10 RPR.

This looks a tightly matched contest, with little to separate the leading contenders on recent figures. There is no confirmed front-runner, so a muddling, tactical gallop is likely, making tactical speed and a handy early position important. Mid draws have a statistical edge at Leopardstown, with an impact value of 1.32. Snellen and Geryon head the shortlist, both having weakened late last time and separated by less than a length on the ratings. Adelaide River and Cowardofthecounty also come here with solid recent form, both proven on good ground.

The key questions

How will the race be run?

No confirmed front-runner — likely a muddling, tactical gallop, where a handy early pitch and tactical speed matter.

Does the draw matter?

Mid draws are favoured over mid at Leopardstown (impact value 1.32, beating 51% of rivals on average).

Who's the main danger?

Geryon is the chief threat to Snellen, with the form figures climbing — and on our figures there's barely a length between them.

Pace map — who goes forward, who waits

Leads 0

—

Prominent 1

4Geryon

Mid-pack 2

2Snellen

6Syzygy

Held up 3

3Adelaide River

5Cowardofthecounty

1Isaac Newton

Pace confidence: 100%

Draw & pace bias — impact value >1.0 = favoured

Mid draws are favoured over mid at Leopardstown (impact value 1.32, beating 51% of rivals on average).

Low draw

IV 1.13

53% rivals beaten · n=439

Mid draw

IV 1.32

51% rivals beaten · n=461

High draw

IV 0.94

47% rivals beaten · n=668

What the data likes (our composite read — not tips)

No. 1 read Snellen Settles midfield

Stall 2 · Trainer Gavin Cromwell · Jockey Gary Carroll

A model of consistency — placed in 4 of his last 6.

Ability rating

113 steady

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 8% · Jockey 8%

strike rate at Leopardstown

Last time out

RPR 105

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

321635 last time ←

GroundProven on good — won 2 of 8

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 2 of 4 around 1m 1f

CourseCourse winner — 1 from 4 here

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 8%, jockey 8%

DrawDrawn 2 (low third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.13)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

2 Geryon Races prominently

Stall 4 · Trainer G M Lyons · Jockey Colin Keane

Reliable and on the up — placed in 3 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing. The stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

108 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 20% · Jockey 17%

strike rate at Leopardstown

Last time out

RPR 108

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

224424 last time ←

GroundProven on good — won 1 of 5

DistanceUnproven at 1m 1f (0 from 1)

Course1 run at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 20%, jockey 17%

DrawDrawn 4 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.32)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

3 Adelaide River Held up, comes late

Stall 3 · Trainer Joseph Patrick O'Brien · Jockey Dylan Browne McMonagle

A model of consistency — placed in 4 of his last 6.

Ability rating

115 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 11% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at Leopardstown

Last time out

RPR 98

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

2821315 last time ←

GroundProven on good — won 1 of 3

CourseCourse winner — 1 from 1 here

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 11%, jockey 12%

DrawDrawn 3 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.32)

4 Cowardofthecounty Held up, comes late

Stall 5 · Trainer Joseph Patrick O'Brien · Jockey Declan McDonogh

A model of consistency — placed in 3 of his last 6.

Ability rating

105 steady

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 11% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at Leopardstown

Last time out

RPR 101

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

9118213 last time ←

GroundProven on good — won 1 of 4

Course2 runs at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 11%, jockey 12%

DrawDrawn 5 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.94)

5 Syzygy Settles midfield

Stall 6 · Trainer Daniel McLoughlin · Jockey Ben Coen

Reliable and on the up — placed in 5 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing.

Ability rating

98 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 10% · Jockey 10%

strike rate at Leopardstown

Last time out

RPR 98

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

113362 last time ←

GroundYet to win on good (0 from 3)

Course1 run at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 10%, jockey 10%

DrawDrawn 6 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.94)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

6 Isaac Newton Held up, comes late

Stall 1 · Trainer A P O'Brien · Jockey Wayne Lordan

A model of consistency — placed in 3 of his last 6. The stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

101 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 22% · Jockey 10%

strike rate at Leopardstown

Last time out

RPR 87

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

214516 last time ←

GroundProven on good — won 1 of 4

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 2 around 1m 1f

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 22%, jockey 10%

DrawDrawn 1 (low third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.13)

Stable hot (11/50, 22%)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

Figures from results history (RPR/TS), pace from running-style history, connections from trainer/jockey stats, breeding from sire aptitude. Shrunk for small samples. Information only, not betting advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.