Leopardstown · 6:35pm

Dublin To Bahrain Handicap

Flat (Turf) 1m GOOD, Good to firm in places 3yo+ 6 runners

Tight read Aviatrice just edges it from Loughrea and How'sthebai — top 3 covered by 3 RPR. Field updated — 1 non-runner removed.

Loughrea is the only confirmed front-runner and may be able to dictate a steady pace if left alone in front. Mid draws hold an advantage at Leopardstown, with an impact value of 1.32 and a 51% average of rivals beaten. The race is tightly matched at the top, with Aviatrice and Loughrea separated by less than a length on recent figures (RPR 103 and 90 respectively). Loughrea is lightly raced and open to progress, while How’sthebai (RPR 92) is a course winner who met trouble last time. Exquisite Acclaim (RPR 90) races prominently but weakened late on his latest start.

The key questions

How will the race be run?

Loughrea is the only confirmed front-runner, so expect a steady gallop the leader can control — a powerful setup if left alone up front.

Does the draw matter?

Mid draws are favoured over mid at Leopardstown (impact value 1.32, beating 51% of rivals on average).

Any unexposed improver?

Loughrea is lightly-raced with a profile to progress — the type to respect on potential.

Who's the main danger?

Loughrea is the chief threat to Aviatrice, with the form figures climbing — and on our figures there's barely a length between them.

Pace map — who goes forward, who waits

Leads 1

1Loughrea

Prominent 1

3Exquisite Acclaim

Mid-pack 2

6Aviatrice

4How'sthebai

Held up 2

7Tachos

5Quatre Bras

Pace confidence: 100%

Draw & pace bias — impact value >1.0 = favoured

Mid draws are favoured over mid at Leopardstown (impact value 1.32, beating 51% of rivals on average).

Low draw

IV 1.13

53% rivals beaten · n=439

Mid draw

IV 1.32

51% rivals beaten · n=461

High draw

IV 0.94

47% rivals beaten · n=668

What the data likes (our composite read — not tips)

No. 1 read Aviatrice Settles midfield

Stall 6 · Trainer David Marnane · Jockey Luke McAteer

A model of consistency — placed in 5 of his last 6.

Ability rating

103 steady

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 12% · Jockey 10%

strike rate at Leopardstown

Last time out

RPR 93

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

2113103 last time ←

GroundYet to win on good (0 from 5)

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 3 around 1m

Course2 runs at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 12%, jockey 10%

DrawDrawn 6 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.94)

2 Loughrea Likely to lead

Stall 1 · Trainer Andrew Slattery · Jockey Andrew Slattery

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb.

Ability rating

90 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 8% · Jockey 7%

strike rate at Leopardstown

Last time out

RPR 90

most recent run

Last 3 starts — oldest to most recent

521 last time ←

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 2 around 1m

Course1 run at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 8%, jockey 7%

DrawDrawn 1 (low third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.13)

3 How'sthebai Settles midfield

Stall 4 · Trainer G M Lyons · Jockey Colin Keane

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks; the stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

92 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 20% · Jockey 17%

strike rate at Leopardstown

Last time out

RPR 92

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

661414 last time ←

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 3 around 1m

CourseCourse winner — 1 from 1 here

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 20%, jockey 17%

DrawDrawn 4 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.32)

Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result

4 Exquisite Acclaim Races prominently

Stall 3 · Trainer Adrian McGuinness · Jockey Adam Caffrey

Holds solid claims on these figures.

Ability rating

90 steady

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 11% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at Leopardstown

Last time out

RPR 80

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

11041273 last time ←

GroundYet to win on good (0 from 21)

DistanceHas won around 1m — 3 from 22

Course4 runs at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 11%, jockey 12%

DrawDrawn 3 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.32)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

5 Tachos Held up, comes late

Stall 7 · Trainer D K Weld · Jockey Chris Hayes

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks.

Ability rating

88 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 11% · Jockey 9%

strike rate at Leopardstown

Last time out

RPR 72

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

56146911 last time ←

GroundProven on good — won 2 of 9

DistanceUnproven at 1m (0 from 8)

CourseCourse winner — 1 from 7 here

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 11%, jockey 9%

DrawDrawn 7 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.94)

Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result

6 Quatre Bras Held up, comes late

Stall 5 · Trainer Richard John O'Brien · Jockey W J Lee

Holds solid claims on these figures.

Ability rating

84 steady

recent best — career high 96 in 2025

This track

Trainer 12% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at Leopardstown

Last time out

RPR 76

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

11411884 last time ←

GroundYet to win on good (0 from 5)

DistanceUnproven at 1m (0 from 9)

Course2 runs at the track without winning

FitnessQuick turnaround — back within 3 days

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 12%, jockey 12%

DrawDrawn 5 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.94)

Figures from results history (RPR/TS), pace from running-style history, connections from trainer/jockey stats, breeding from sire aptitude. Shrunk for small samples. Information only, not betting advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.