Leopardstown · 6:00pm

Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden

Flat (Turf) 1m GOOD, Good to firm in places 2yo · F 7 runners

Solid read Sarah's Choice is our pick, with Bellesque the main danger. Field updated — 1 non-runner removed.

This one-mile turf contest at Leopardstown features seven runners and is likely to be run at a muddling, tactical pace, with no confirmed front-runner. Mid draws hold a statistical edge here, boasting an impact value of 1.32 and typically beating 51% of rivals. Sarah's Choice, lightly raced and open to further progress, sets the standard on a recent RPR of 93 and is expected to race mid-pack on breeding. Bellesque, with a recent RPR of 73, shapes as the main danger and is also likely to be positioned in mid-division. Exceptionally and Amsterdam's Law complete the leading quartet on recent figures, though both have something to prove based on their latest efforts.

The key questions

How will the race be run?

No confirmed front-runner — likely a muddling, tactical gallop, where a handy early pitch and tactical speed matter.

Does the draw matter?

Mid draws are favoured over mid at Leopardstown (impact value 1.32, beating 51% of rivals on average).

Any unexposed improver?

Sarah's Choice is lightly-raced with a profile to progress — the type to respect on potential.

Who's the main danger?

Bellesque is the chief threat to Sarah's Choice.

Pace map — who goes forward, who waits

Leads 0

—

Prominent 1

7Amsterdam's Law

Mid-pack 2

3Sarah's Choice

4Bellesque

Held up 0

—

Pace confidence: 14%

Draw & pace bias — impact value >1.0 = favoured

Mid draws are favoured over mid at Leopardstown (impact value 1.32, beating 51% of rivals on average).

Low draw

IV 1.13

53% rivals beaten · n=439

Mid draw

IV 1.32

51% rivals beaten · n=461

High draw

IV 0.94

47% rivals beaten · n=668

What the data likes (our composite read — not tips)

No. 1 read Sarah's Choice Settles midfieldest

Stall 3 · Trainer Mrs John Harrington · Jockey Shane Foley

Holds solid claims on these figures.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 9% · Jockey 10%

strike rate at Leopardstown

Last time out

RPR 93

most recent run

Last 1 start — oldest to most recent

2 last time ←

GroundBred for it — the sire's runners strike at 12.6% on good

DistanceUnproven at 1m (0 from 1)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 9%, jockey 10%

DrawDrawn 3 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.32)

2 Bellesque Settles midfieldest

Stall 4 · Trainer Joseph Patrick O'Brien · Jockey Dylan Browne McMonagle

Holds solid claims on these figures. The stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 11% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at Leopardstown

Last time out

RPR 73

most recent run

Last 1 start — oldest to most recent

2 last time ←

Course1 run at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 11%, jockey 12%

DrawDrawn 4 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.32)

Stable hot (18/52, 35%)

3 Exceptionally Run-style unknown

Stall 5 · Trainer A P O'Brien · Jockey Jack Cleary(5)

Holds solid claims on these figures. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks; the stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 22% · Jockey 6%

strike rate at Leopardstown

Last time out

RPR 57

most recent run

Last 1 start — oldest to most recent

12 last time ←

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 22%, jockey 6%

DrawDrawn 5 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.94)

Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result

4 Amsterdam's Law Races prominently

Stall 7 · Trainer Robson De Aguiar · Jockey Donagh O'Connor

Holds solid claims on these figures. The stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 23% · Jockey 10%

strike rate at Leopardstown

Last time out

RPR 52

most recent run

Last 1 start — oldest to most recent

7 last time ←

FitnessFreshened up — 53 days since his last run

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 23%, jockey 10%

DrawDrawn 7 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.94)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

5 Cedrela Run-style unknown

Stall 2 · Trainer Robson De Aguiar · Jockey W J Lee

A newcomer to the form book — judged on stable and breeding. The stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

—

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 23% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at Leopardstown

Last time out

—

most recent run

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 23%, jockey 12%

DrawDrawn 2 (low third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.13)

6 So Lovely Run-style unknown

Stall 1 · Trainer A P O'Brien · Jockey Wayne Lordan

A newcomer to the form book — judged on stable and breeding. The stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

—

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 22% · Jockey 10%

strike rate at Leopardstown

Last time out

—

most recent run

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 22%, jockey 10%

DrawDrawn 1 (low third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.13)

7 Thelymitra Run-style unknown

Stall 8 · Trainer Joseph Patrick O'Brien · Jockey Declan McDonogh

A newcomer to the form book — judged on stable and breeding. The stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

—

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 11% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at Leopardstown

Last time out

—

most recent run

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 11%, jockey 12%

DrawDrawn 8 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.94)

Stable hot (18/52, 35%)

Figures from results history (RPR/TS), pace from running-style history, connections from trainer/jockey stats, breeding from sire aptitude. Shrunk for small samples. Information only, not betting advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.