Leopardstown · 4:50pm

Irish EBF Auction Series Maiden

Flat (Turf) 7f GOOD, Good to firm in places 2yo 12 runners

Clear read Sea Of Rain stands out on our figures. Field updated — 1 non-runner removed.

Sea Of Rain is the only confirmed front-runner in this 7f contest and could get a steady lead if left alone, which would suit. Mid draws hold an advantage at Leopardstown, with an impact value of 1.32 and an average of 51% of rivals beaten. Sea Of Rain stands out on recent figures with an RPR of 78 and remains lightly raced, suggesting further progress is possible. Old Joanie (RPR 70) is the main danger, while Jezzie Bea (RPR 70) and Gwen (RPR 66, likely mid-pack on breeding) also feature among the leading contenders.

The key questions

How will the race be run?

Sea Of Rain is the only confirmed front-runner, so expect a steady gallop the leader can control — a powerful setup if left alone up front.

Does the draw matter?

Mid draws are favoured over mid at Leopardstown (impact value 1.32, beating 51% of rivals on average).

Any unexposed improver?

Sea Of Rain is lightly-raced with a profile to progress — the type to respect on potential.

Pace map — who goes forward, who waits

Leads 1

9Sea Of Rain

Prominent 1

13Razmataz

Mid-pack 3

3Gwen

4Bold Move

11Ballyskeagh

Held up 1

12Star Glory

Pace confidence: 17%

Draw & pace bias — impact value >1.0 = favoured

Mid draws are favoured over mid at Leopardstown (impact value 1.32, beating 51% of rivals on average).

Low draw

IV 1.13

53% rivals beaten · n=439

Mid draw

IV 1.32

51% rivals beaten · n=461

High draw

IV 0.94

47% rivals beaten · n=668

What the data likes (our composite read — not tips)

No. 1 read Sea Of Rain Likely to lead

Stall 9 · Trainer J S Bolger · Jockey Declan McDonogh

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb.

Ability rating

78 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 7% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at Leopardstown

Last time out

RPR 78

most recent run

Last 3 starts — oldest to most recent

422 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 7f (0 from 3)

Course1 run at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 7%, jockey 12%

DrawDrawn 9 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.94)

2 Old Joanie Run-style unknown

Stall 2 · Trainer James M Barrett · Jockey Ben Coen

Holds solid claims on these figures.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 3% · Jockey 10%

strike rate at Leopardstown

Last time out

RPR 70

most recent run

Last 1 start — oldest to most recent

7 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 7f (0 from 1)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 3%, jockey 10%

DrawDrawn 2 (low third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.13)

3 Jezzie Bea Run-style unknown

Stall 6 · Trainer Mrs John Harrington · Jockey Shane Foley

Holds solid claims on these figures.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 9% · Jockey 10%

strike rate at Leopardstown

Last time out

RPR 70

most recent run

Last 1 start — oldest to most recent

4 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 7f (0 from 1)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 9%, jockey 10%

DrawDrawn 6 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.32)

Kept on last time — a stronger gallop or longer trip may suit

4 Gwen Settles midfieldest

Stall 3 · Trainer David J Geary · Jockey N G McCullagh

Holds solid claims on these figures.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 7% · Jockey 4%

strike rate at Leopardstown

Last time out

RPR 66

most recent run

Last 1 start — oldest to most recent

7 last time ←

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 7%, jockey 4%

DrawDrawn 3 (low third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.13)

5 Bold Move Settles midfieldest

Stall 4 · Trainer Donnacha Aidan O'Brien · Jockey Gavin Ryan

Holds solid claims on these figures. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks; the stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 15% · Jockey 10%

strike rate at Leopardstown

Last time out

RPR 65

most recent run

Last 1 start — oldest to most recent

7 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 7f (0 from 1)

Course1 run at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 15%, jockey 10%

DrawDrawn 4 (low third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.13)

Stable hot (4/17, 24%)

Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result

6 Ballyskeagh Settles midfieldest

Stall 11 · Trainer Joseph Patrick O'Brien · Jockey Dylan Browne McMonagle

Holds solid claims on these figures. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks; the stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 11% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at Leopardstown

Last time out

RPR 63

most recent run

Last 1 start — oldest to most recent

5 last time ←

GroundBred for it — the sire's runners strike at 12.4% on good

DistanceUnproven at 7f (0 from 1)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 11%, jockey 12%

DrawDrawn 11 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.94)

Stable hot (18/52, 35%)

Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result

7 Star Glory Held up, comes late

Stall 12 · Trainer Noel Meade · Jockey Colin Keane

Holds solid claims on these figures.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 11% · Jockey 17%

strike rate at Leopardstown

Last time out

RPR 62

most recent run

Last 1 start — oldest to most recent

6 last time ←

FitnessFreshened up — 73 days since his last run

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 11%, jockey 17%

DrawDrawn 12 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.94)

Fresh (73d)

Kept on last time — a stronger gallop or longer trip may suit

8 Razmataz Races prominentlyest

Stall 13 · Trainer Donnacha Aidan O'Brien · Jockey Paddy Harnett(5)

Holds solid claims on these figures. The stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 15% · Jockey 7%

strike rate at Leopardstown

Last time out

RPR 59

most recent run

Last 2 starts — oldest to most recent

158 last time ←

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 15%, jockey 7%

DrawDrawn 13 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.94)

Stable hot (4/17, 24%)

9 Williamsburg Run-style unknown

Stall 8 · Trainer David Marnane · Jockey Luke McAteer

A newcomer to the form book — judged on stable and breeding.

Ability rating

—

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 12% · Jockey 10%

strike rate at Leopardstown

Last time out

—

most recent run

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 12%, jockey 10%

DrawDrawn 8 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.32)

10 Hypiradon Run-style unknown

Stall 10 · Trainer Kevin Thomas Coleman · Jockey Rory Cleary

A newcomer to the form book — judged on stable and breeding.

Ability rating

—

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 8% · Jockey 5%

strike rate at Leopardstown

Last time out

—

most recent run

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 8%, jockey 5%

DrawDrawn 10 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.94)

11 Mirren Run-style unknown

Stall 5 · Trainer David Marnane · Jockey Robbie Colgan

A newcomer to the form book — judged on stable and breeding.

Ability rating

—

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 12% · Jockey 5%

strike rate at Leopardstown

Last time out

—

most recent run

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 12%, jockey 5%

DrawDrawn 5 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.32)

12 Grit And Glory Run-style unknown

Stall 7 · Trainer Jack Foley · Jockey W J Lee

A newcomer to the form book — judged on stable and breeding. The stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

—

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 25% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at Leopardstown

Last time out

—

most recent run

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 25%, jockey 12%

DrawDrawn 7 (mid third) — favoured here (impact value 1.32)

Figures from results history (RPR/TS), pace from running-style history, connections from trainer/jockey stats, breeding from sire aptitude. Shrunk for small samples. Information only, not betting advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.