Killarney · 4:30pm

INCO Broking Maiden Hurdle

Hurdle 2m 4½f GOOD 4yo+ 9 runners

Solid read Tyson Fury is our pick, with Dawn Coming the main danger.

This 2m 4½f hurdle at Killarney features nine runners and is likely to develop into a tactical affair, with no confirmed front-runner and a muddling pace expected. Tyson Fury sets the standard on ratings but is unproven at this trip, raising a stamina question. Dawn Coming, who encountered trouble last time, looks the main danger. Early Dawning is lightly raced and open to progress, while Happy Me also has recent form but weakened late on his latest start. Tactical speed and a handy position could prove decisive in this solid contest.

The key questions

How will the race be run?

No confirmed front-runner — likely a muddling, tactical gallop, where a handy early pitch and tactical speed matter.

Does Early Dawning stay 2m 4½f?

It's the highest-rated but unproven beyond today's trip — a stamina question over this distance.

Any unexposed improver?

Early Dawning is lightly-raced with a profile to progress — the type to respect on potential.

Who's the main danger?

Dawn Coming is the chief threat to Tyson Fury, met trouble last time.

Pace map — who goes forward, who waits

Leads 0

—

Prominent 1

0Dawn Coming

Mid-pack 4

0Tyson Fury

0Early Dawning

0Happy Me

0Grabat

Held up 1

0Eyecanboogie

Pace confidence: 56%

What the data likes (our composite read — not tips)

No. 1 read Tyson Fury Settles midfield

Stall 0 · Trainer Denis Gerard Hogan · Jockey Daniel King

A model of consistency — placed in 3 of his last 6.

Ability rating

115 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 7% · Jockey 15%

strike rate at Killarney

Last time out

RPR 91

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

6122106 last time ←

GroundHas won on good — 1 from 7

Course1 run at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 7%, jockey 15%

Weakened in the closing stages last time

2 Dawn Coming Races prominently

Stall 0 · Trainer C Byrnes · Jockey Phillip Enright

A model of consistency — placed in 5 of his last 6. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks; the stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

112 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 17% · Jockey 9%

strike rate at Killarney

Last time out

RPR 68

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

332234 last time ←

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 17%, jockey 9%

Stable hot (3/11, 27%)

Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result

3 Early Dawning Settles midfield

Stall 0 · Trainer W P Mullins · Jockey Paul Townend

Holds solid claims on these figures. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks; the stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

120

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 26% · Jockey 35%

strike rate at Killarney

Last time out

RPR 100

most recent run

Last 2 starts — oldest to most recent

34 last time ←

GroundBred for it — the sire's runners strike at 16.2% on good

FitnessBack from a long absence — 196 days off, fitness to prove

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 26%, jockey 35%

Long layoff (196d)

Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result

4 Happy Me Settles midfield

Stall 0 · Trainer W J Burke · Jockey Alan O'Sullivan(5)

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb.

Ability rating

109 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 5% · Jockey 15%

strike rate at Killarney

Last time out

RPR 109

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

483146PU last time ←

GroundYet to win on good (0 from 4)

DistanceUnproven at 2m 4½f (0 from 6)

Course1 run at the track without winning

FitnessFreshened up — 50 days since his last run

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 5%, jockey 15%

Weakened in the closing stages last time

5 Eyecanboogie Held up, comes late

Stall 0 · Trainer E McNamara · Jockey Calum Hogan(5)

Form has dipped a little of late, so needs to bounce back.

Ability rating

73 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 14% · Jockey 11%

strike rate at Killarney

Last time out

RPR 59

most recent run

Last 4 starts — oldest to most recent

3PU106 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 2m 4½f (0 from 1)

Course1 run at the track without winning

FitnessFreshened up — 49 days since his last run

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 14%, jockey 11%

6 Dunaird Run-style unknown

Stall 0 · Trainer Eugene M O'Sullivan · Jockey Darragh O'Keeffe

Has form to go on — placed in 4 of his last 4 starts.

Ability rating

—

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 11% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at Killarney

Last time out

—

most recent run

Last 4 starts — oldest to most recent

2132 last time ←

FitnessFreshened up — 68 days since his last run

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 11%, jockey 12%

Fresh (68d)

7 Grabat Settles midfieldest

Stall 0 · Trainer Philip Fenton · Jockey Brian Hayes

Has racing experience, though lightly exposed in our figures.

Ability rating

—

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 6% · Jockey 9%

strike rate at Killarney

Last time out

RPR 85

most recent run

Last 1 start — oldest to most recent

11 last time ←

GroundBred for it — the sire's runners strike at 12.3% on good

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 6%, jockey 9%

8 Joly Saphir Run-style unknown

Stall 0 · Trainer Philip Fenton · Jockey Niall Moore(5)

A newcomer to the form book — judged on stable and breeding.

Ability rating

—

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 6% · Jockey 2%

strike rate at Killarney

Last time out

—

most recent run

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 6%, jockey 2%

9 Roll It Roisin Run-style unknown

Stall 0 · Trainer David Harry Kelly · Jockey Cian Quirke

Has racing experience, though lightly exposed in our figures.

Ability rating

—

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 8% · Jockey 6%

strike rate at Killarney

Last time out

—

most recent run

Last 2 starts — oldest to most recent

P5 last time ←

FitnessFreshened up — 54 days since his last run

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 8%, jockey 6%

Figures from results history (RPR/TS), pace from running-style history, connections from trainer/jockey stats, breeding from sire aptitude. Shrunk for small samples. Information only, not betting advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.