Hamilton · 5:10pm
Flat (Turf)
1m 5f
GOOD TO FIRM, Good in places (GoingStick: 8.3)
Class 6
4yo+
5 runners
Clear read
Alnayef stands out on our figures.
This small-field 1m 5f handicap at Hamilton looks set for a tactical affair, with no confirmed front-runner and a muddling gallop likely. Low draws are favoured over this course and distance, offering a potential edge. Alnayef stands out on recent figures (RPR 72) and is already a course winner. Bruce Banner (RPR 67) rates the main danger, typically racing prominently and keeping on well last time. Aighear, another course winner, drops in class—a move that often suits the yard—but weakened late on most recently.
The key questions
How will the race be run?
No confirmed front-runner — likely a muddling, tactical gallop, where a handy early pitch and tactical speed matter.
Does the draw matter?
Low draws are favoured over route at Hamilton (impact value 1.28, beating 51% of rivals on average).
Anyone well-treated?
Aighear drops in class — often a positive trainer angle.
Pace map — who goes forward, who waits
Leads 0
—
Prominent 3
1Bruce Banner
3Time Turner
4Aighear
Mid-pack 1
5Desert Quest
Held up 1
2Alnayef
Pace confidence: 100%
Draw & pace bias — impact value >1.0 = favoured
Low draws are favoured over route at Hamilton (impact value 1.28, beating 51% of rivals on average).
Low draw
IV 1.28
51% rivals beaten · n=81
Mid draw
IV 1.17
49% rivals beaten · n=90
High draw
IV 0.88
50% rivals beaten · n=116
What the data likes (our composite read — not tips)
No. 1 read
Alnayef
Held up, comes late
Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb.
Ability rating
72 improving
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 11% · Jockey 12%
strike rate at Hamilton
Last time out
RPR 72
most recent run
Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent
444871
last time ←
DistanceHas won around 1m 5f — 1 from 8
CourseCourse winner — 1 from 7 here
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 11%, jockey 12%
2
Bruce Banner
Races prominently
Reliable and on the up — placed in 3 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing.
Ability rating
67 improving
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 9% · Jockey 8%
strike rate at Hamilton
Last time out
RPR 67
most recent run
Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent
523524
last time ←
DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 4 around 1m 5f
Course1 run at the track without winning
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 9%, jockey 8%
Kept on last time — a stronger gallop or longer trip may suit
3
Time Turner
Races prominently
Holds solid claims on these figures. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks; the stable is in good heart at the track.
Ability rating
69 steady
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 11% · Jockey 9%
strike rate at Hamilton
Last time out
RPR 64
most recent run
Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent
421945
last time ←
DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 2 around 1m 5f
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 11%, jockey 9%
Stable hot (9/34, 26%)
Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result
4
Aighear
Races prominently
Reliable and on the up — placed in 4 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing. Drops in class, often a positive sign.
Ability rating
62 improving
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 11% · Jockey 12%
strike rate at Hamilton
Last time out
RPR 62
most recent run
Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent
123346
last time ←
GroundYet to win on firm (0 from 6)
DistanceHas won around 1m 5f — 1 from 9
CourseCourse winner — 1 from 10 here
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 11%, jockey 12%
Drops in class (C5→C6)
Weakened in the closing stages last time
5
Desert Quest
Settles midfield
Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks.
Ability rating
63 improving
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 5% · Jockey 2%
strike rate at Hamilton
Last time out
RPR 52
most recent run
Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent
39544–
last time ←
GroundProven on firm — won 1 of 5
DistanceHas won around 1m 5f — 2 from 13
CourseCourse winner — 1 from 4 here
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 5%, jockey 2%
Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result
Figures from results history (RPR/TS), pace from running-style history, connections from trainer/jockey stats, breeding from sire aptitude. Shrunk for small samples. Information only, not betting advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.