Hamilton · 4:00pm
Flat (Turf)
1m 0½f
GOOD TO FIRM, Good in places (GoingStick: 8.3)
Class 4
4yo+
5 runners
Tight read
Inspired just edges it from Jannas Journey and Kaleido — top 3 covered by 14 RPR.
Inspired and Sanafi Zabeel are expected to set an even pace in this small field. High draws hold a statistical edge at Hamilton, with an impact value of 1.18 and a 49% average rival-beating rate. The race looks very tight at the top, with Inspired (recent RPR 96) only narrowly ahead of Jannas Journey (RPR 93), a previous course winner who handles firm ground. Break The Bank remains unexposed and could progress, while Kaleido is another to note from off the pace. This shapes as a near-coin-flip between the principals.
The key questions
How will the race be run?
Inspired and Sanafi Zabeel should ensure an even gallop.
Does the draw matter?
High draws are favoured over mid at Hamilton (impact value 1.18, beating 49% of rivals on average).
Any unexposed improver?
Break The Bank is lightly-raced with a profile to progress — the type to respect on potential.
Who's the main danger?
Jannas Journey is the chief threat to Inspired, a course winner — and on our figures there's barely a length between them.
Pace map — who goes forward, who waits
Leads 2
3Inspired
2Sanafi Zabeel
Prominent 0
—
Mid-pack 1
4Break The Bank
Held up 2
5Jannas Journey
1Kaleido
Pace confidence: 80%
Draw & pace bias — impact value >1.0 = favoured
High draws are favoured over mid at Hamilton (impact value 1.18, beating 49% of rivals on average).
Low draw
IV 1.03
50% rivals beaten · n=92
Mid draw
IV 0.89
50% rivals beaten · n=107
High draw
IV 1.18
49% rivals beaten · n=137
What the data likes (our composite read — not tips)
No. 1 read
Inspired
Likely to lead
Holds solid claims on these figures.
Ability rating
96 steady
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 13% · Jockey 8%
strike rate at Hamilton
Last time out
RPR 89
most recent run
Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent
364452
last time ←
DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 5 around 1m 0½f
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 13%, jockey 8%
2
Jannas Journey
Held up, comes late
Holds solid claims on these figures.
Ability rating
93 steady
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 11% · Jockey 12%
strike rate at Hamilton
Last time out
RPR 86
most recent run
Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent
978481
last time ←
GroundProven on firm — won 1 of 5
DistanceEffective at the trip — won 2 of 8 around 1m 0½f
CourseCourse winner — 1 from 4 here
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 11%, jockey 12%
3
Kaleido
Held up, comes late
Form has dipped a little of late, so needs to bounce back.
Ability rating
85 regressing
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 12% · Jockey 10%
strike rate at Hamilton
Last time out
RPR 75
most recent run
Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent
9610922
last time ←
DistanceUnproven at 1m 0½f (0 from 7)
Course1 run at the track without winning
FitnessQuick turnaround — back within 5 days
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 12%, jockey 10%
4
Break The Bank
Settles midfieldest
Holds solid claims on these figures.
Ability rating
76
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 12% · Jockey 11%
strike rate at Hamilton
Last time out
RPR 76
most recent run
Last 2 starts — oldest to most recent
162
last time ←
GroundBred for it — the sire's runners strike at 12.9% on firm
DistanceUnproven at 1m 0½f (0 from 1)
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 12%, jockey 11%
5
Sanafi Zabeel
Likely to lead
Reliable and on the up — placed in 3 of his last 5, with the form figures climbing.
Ability rating
71 improving
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 11% · Jockey 8%
strike rate at Hamilton
Last time out
RPR 61
most recent run
Last 5 starts — oldest to most recent
53193
last time ←
DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 4 around 1m 0½f
CourseCourse winner — 1 from 4 here
FitnessQuick turnaround — back within 5 days
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 11%, jockey 8%
Figures from results history (RPR/TS), pace from running-style history, connections from trainer/jockey stats, breeding from sire aptitude. Shrunk for small samples. Information only, not betting advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.