Hamilton · 3:25pm

Wellman Cars Private Hire Almada Mile Handicap Stakes

Flat (Turf) 1m 0½f GOOD TO FIRM, Good in places (GoingStick: 8.3) Class 2 3yo+ 5 runners

Tight read Monarch's Gold just edges it from Rhoscolyn and English Oak — top 3 covered by 11 RPR. Field updated — 1 non-runner removed.

Salam Dubawi is the only confirmed front-runner and could get a steady lead if left alone, which can be a tactical advantage at Hamilton. High draws have a measurable edge here, with an impact value of 1.18 and a 49% average of rivals beaten. The race is tightly matched at the top, with Monarch's Gold and Rhoscolyn separated by less than a length on recent figures; Rhoscolyn is the main danger and had excuses last time after meeting trouble in running. English Oak also brings a recent RPR of 103 and handles firm ground, but was another to encounter traffic last time. I'll Be Back remains lightly raced and could progress further.

The key questions

How will the race be run?

Salam Dubawi is the only confirmed front-runner, so expect a steady gallop the leader can control — a powerful setup if left alone up front.

Does the draw matter?

High draws are favoured over mid at Hamilton (impact value 1.18, beating 49% of rivals on average).

Any unexposed improver?

I'll Be Back is lightly-raced with a profile to progress — the type to respect on potential.

Who's the main danger?

Rhoscolyn is the chief threat to Monarch's Gold, met trouble last time — and on our figures there's barely a length between them.

Pace map — who goes forward, who waits

Leads 1

4Salam Dubawi

Prominent 2

3Monarch's Gold

5I'll Be Back

Mid-pack 0

—

Held up 2

1Rhoscolyn

2English Oak

Pace confidence: 100%

Draw & pace bias — impact value >1.0 = favoured

High draws are favoured over mid at Hamilton (impact value 1.18, beating 49% of rivals on average).

Low draw

IV 1.03

50% rivals beaten · n=92

Mid draw

IV 0.89

50% rivals beaten · n=107

High draw

IV 1.18

49% rivals beaten · n=137

What the data likes (our composite read — not tips)

No. 1 read Monarch's Gold Races prominently

Stall 3 · Trainer Kevin Philippart De Foy · Jockey David Egan

Reliable and on the up — placed in 3 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing. The stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

102 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 15% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at Hamilton

Last time out

RPR 102

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

1521329 last time ←

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 15%, jockey 12%

Stable hot (4/15, 27%)

2 Rhoscolyn Held up, comes late

Stall 1 · Trainer David O'Meara · Jockey Daniel Tudhope

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks.

Ability rating

102 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 12% · Jockey 10%

strike rate at Hamilton

Last time out

RPR 101

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

612451111 last time ←

GroundHas won on firm — 1 from 13

DistanceHas won around 1m 0½f — 3 from 20

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 12%, jockey 10%

Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result

3 English Oak Held up, comes late

Stall 2 · Trainer Hamad Al Jehani · Jockey Jack Nicholls(5)

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks.

Ability rating

103 improving

recent best — career high 117 in 2024

This track

Trainer 3% · Jockey 10%

strike rate at Hamilton

Last time out

RPR 91

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

1462521314 last time ←

GroundProven on firm — won 2 of 8

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 5 around 1m 0½f

Course1 run at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 3%, jockey 10%

Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result

4 Salam Dubawi Likely to lead

Stall 4 · Trainer Jim Goldie · Jockey Paul Mulrennan

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb.

Ability rating

93 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 11% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at Hamilton

Last time out

RPR 93

most recent run

Last 5 starts — oldest to most recent

1111035 last time ←

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 2 around 1m 0½f

CourseCourse winner — 1 from 1 here

FitnessQuick turnaround — back within 5 days

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 11%, jockey 12%

5 I'll Be Back Races prominently

Stall 5 · Trainer K. R. Burke · Jockey Sam James

Holds solid claims on these figures.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 13% · Jockey 8%

strike rate at Hamilton

Last time out

RPR 85

most recent run

Last 2 starts — oldest to most recent

11 last time ←

GroundBred for it — the sire's runners strike at 15.3% on firm

FitnessReturns from 94 days off the track

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 13%, jockey 8%

Fresh (94d)

Figures from results history (RPR/TS), pace from running-style history, connections from trainer/jockey stats, breeding from sire aptitude. Shrunk for small samples. Information only, not betting advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.