Hamilton · 2:50pm

Alex McWilliams Memorial Celebrations Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race)

Flat (Turf) 1m 0½f GOOD TO FIRM, Good in places (GoingStick: 8.3) Class 5 3-5yo 6 runners

Solid read My Mate Roger is our pick, with Test Run the main danger.

This looks a tactical contest with no confirmed front-runner, so early position and tactical speed could prove important. High draws have a statistical edge at Hamilton, with an impact value of 1.18 and a 49% average of beating rivals. My Mate Roger sets the standard on recent form, posting an RPR of 90 and dropping in class. Test Run, also dropping in grade and lightly raced, appeals as the main threat on potential. Al Fujairah and Shatin Beauty are both likely to be mid-pack types on breeding, with Al Fujairah having met trouble last time.

The key questions

How will the race be run?

No confirmed front-runner — likely a muddling, tactical gallop, where a handy early pitch and tactical speed matter.

Does the draw matter?

High draws are favoured over mid at Hamilton (impact value 1.18, beating 49% of rivals on average).

Any unexposed improver?

Test Run is lightly-raced with a profile to progress — the type to respect on potential.

Anyone well-treated?

My Mate Roger drops in class — often a positive trainer angle.

Who's the main danger?

Test Run is the chief threat to My Mate Roger, dropping in class.

Pace map — who goes forward, who waits

Leads 0

—

Prominent 1

5My Mate Roger

Mid-pack 3

3Al Fujairah

4Shatin Beauty

2Matter Of Britain

Held up 2

6Test Run

1Blairtum Night

Pace confidence: 50%

Draw & pace bias — impact value >1.0 = favoured

High draws are favoured over mid at Hamilton (impact value 1.18, beating 49% of rivals on average).

Low draw

IV 1.03

50% rivals beaten · n=92

Mid draw

IV 0.89

50% rivals beaten · n=107

High draw

IV 1.18

49% rivals beaten · n=137

What the data likes (our composite read — not tips)

No. 1 read My Mate Roger Races prominently

Stall 5 · Trainer Tom Clover · Jockey David Egan

Reliable and on the up — placed in 4 of his last 4, with the form figures climbing. Drops in class, often a positive sign.

Ability rating

90 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 7% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at Hamilton

Last time out

RPR 90

most recent run

Last 4 starts — oldest to most recent

2222 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 1m 0½f (0 from 2)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 7%, jockey 12%

DrawDrawn 5 (high third) — favoured here (impact value 1.18)

Drops in class (C4→C5)

Kept on last time — a stronger gallop or longer trip may suit

2 Test Run Held up, comes late

Stall 6 · Trainer Michael & David Easterby · Jockey Billy Garritty

Holds solid claims on these figures. Drops in class, often a positive sign.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 9% · Jockey 11%

strike rate at Hamilton

Last time out

RPR 73

most recent run

Last 1 start — oldest to most recent

4 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 1m 0½f (0 from 1)

FitnessBack from a long absence — 306 days off, fitness to prove

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 9%, jockey 11%

DrawDrawn 6 (high third) — favoured here (impact value 1.18)

Drops in class (C2→C5)Long layoff (306d)

Kept on last time — a stronger gallop or longer trip may suit

3 Al Fujairah Settles midfieldest

Stall 3 · Trainer Iain Jardine · Jockey Andrew Mullen

Holds solid claims on these figures. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks; drops in class, often a positive sign.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 9% · Jockey 8%

strike rate at Hamilton

Last time out

RPR 59

most recent run

Last 1 start — oldest to most recent

4 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 1m 0½f (0 from 1)

Course1 run at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 9%, jockey 8%

DrawDrawn 3 (mid third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.89)

Drops in class (C4→C5)

Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result

4 Shatin Beauty Settles midfieldest

Stall 4 · Trainer Linda Perratt · Jockey Tom Kiely-Marshall(5)

Holds solid claims on these figures.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 5% · Jockey 8%

strike rate at Hamilton

Last time out

RPR 27

most recent run

Last 1 start — oldest to most recent

6 last time ←

GroundBred for it — the sire's runners strike at 13.6% on firm

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 5%, jockey 8%

DrawDrawn 4 (mid third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.89)

5 Blairtum Night Held up, comes late

Stall 1 · Trainer Linda Perratt · Jockey David Allan

Holds solid claims on these figures. Drops in class, often a positive sign.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 5% · Jockey 11%

strike rate at Hamilton

Last time out

RPR 34

most recent run

Last 2 starts — oldest to most recent

86 last time ←

GroundBred for it — the sire's runners strike at 18.1% on firm

DistanceUnproven at 1m 0½f (0 from 1)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 5%, jockey 11%

DrawDrawn 1 (low third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.03)

Drops in class (C4→C5)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

6 Matter Of Britain Settles midfieldest

Stall 2 · Trainer David O'Meara · Jockey Daniel Tudhope

A newcomer to the form book — judged on stable and breeding.

Ability rating

—

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 12% · Jockey 10%

strike rate at Hamilton

Last time out

—

most recent run

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 12%, jockey 10%

DrawDrawn 2 (low third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.03)

Figures from results history (RPR/TS), pace from running-style history, connections from trainer/jockey stats, breeding from sire aptitude. Shrunk for small samples. Information only, not betting advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.