Epsom · 6:20pm

Steve Donoghue Handicap Stakes

Flat (Turf) 1m 0½f GOOD TO FIRM, Firm in places (GoingStick: 7.3) Class 5 3yo+ 9 runners

Solid read Kitaro Kich is our pick, with Eutropia the main danger.

An even gallop is likely with Bobacious and Trio expected to be prominent early. Low draws hold an advantage at Epsom, with an impact value of 1.24 and a 54% average of beating rivals. Kitaro Kich drops in class after posting a recent RPR of 85 and is a solid favourite, though Eutropia, who met trouble last time and recorded a recent RPR of 75, is a clear danger. Penfolds Grange and Bobacious also feature among the leading contenders on recent figures, though both weakened late on their latest starts.

The key questions

How will the race be run?

Bobacious and Trio should ensure an even gallop.

Does the draw matter?

Low draws are favoured over mid at Epsom (impact value 1.24, beating 54% of rivals on average).

Anyone well-treated?

Kitaro Kich drops in class — often a positive trainer angle.

Who's the main danger?

Eutropia is the chief threat to Kitaro Kich, met trouble last time.

Pace map — who goes forward, who waits

Leads 2

9Bobacious

7Trio

Prominent 3

2Boston Run

6Bennyworth

3Letsbeatsepsis

Mid-pack 0

—

Held up 4

1Kitaro Kich

5Eutropia

8Penfolds Grange

4Hurricane Laughter

Pace confidence: 100%

Draw & pace bias — impact value >1.0 = favoured

Low draws are favoured over mid at Epsom (impact value 1.24, beating 54% of rivals on average).

Low draw

IV 1.24

54% rivals beaten · n=145

Mid draw

IV 1.14

49% rivals beaten · n=157

High draw

IV 0.96

48% rivals beaten · n=202

What the data likes (our composite read — not tips)

No. 1 read Kitaro Kich Held up, comes late

Stall 1 · Trainer George Baker · Jockey Neil Callan

Holds solid claims on these figures. Drops in class, often a positive sign.

Ability rating

85 steady

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 10% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at Epsom

Last time out

RPR 78

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

552164 last time ←

DistanceHas won around 1m 0½f — 2 from 18

Course2 runs at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 10%, jockey 12%

DrawDrawn 1 (low third) — favoured here (impact value 1.24)

Drops in class (C4→C5)

2 Eutropia Held up, comes late

Stall 5 · Trainer Adrian Wintle · Jockey Tom Marquand

Reliable and on the up — placed in 5 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks; the stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

75 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 9% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at Epsom

Last time out

RPR 75

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

131152 last time ←

DistanceHas won around 1m 0½f — 1 from 8

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 9%, jockey 12%

DrawDrawn 5 (mid third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.14)

Stable hot (3/7, 43%)

Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result

3 Penfolds Grange Held up, comes late

Stall 8 · Trainer Mark Pattinson · Jockey Oisin Murphy

A model of consistency — placed in 3 of his last 6.

Ability rating

75 steady

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 6% · Jockey 19%

strike rate at Epsom

Last time out

RPR 74

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

542263 last time ←

DistanceHas won around 1m 0½f — 1 from 10

FitnessFreshened up — 50 days since his last run

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 6%, jockey 19%

DrawDrawn 8 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.96)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

4 Bobacious Likely to lead

Stall 9 · Trainer Mark Hoad · Jockey Mason Paetel(5)

Form has dipped a little of late, so needs to bounce back.

Ability rating

73 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 6% · Jockey 5%

strike rate at Epsom

Last time out

RPR 63

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

776346 last time ←

GroundProven on firm — won 3 of 10

DistanceUnproven at 1m 0½f (0 from 3)

CourseCourse winner — 1 from 2 here

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 6%, jockey 5%

DrawDrawn 9 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.96)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

5 Trio Likely to lead

Stall 7 · Trainer Eve Johnson Houghton · Jockey Callum Hutchinson

A model of consistency — placed in 4 of his last 6. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks; the stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

73 regressing

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 9% · Jockey 5%

strike rate at Epsom

Last time out

RPR 63

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

133357 last time ←

DistanceEffective at the trip — won 1 of 5 around 1m 0½f

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 9%, jockey 5%

DrawDrawn 7 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.96)

Stable hot (7/29, 24%)

Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result

6 Boston Run Races prominently

Stall 2 · Trainer Simon Dow · Jockey Paddy Bradley

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb.

Ability rating

71 improving

recent best — career high 82 in 2024

This track

Trainer 11% · Jockey 11%

strike rate at Epsom

Last time out

RPR 60

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

51098116 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 1m 0½f (0 from 5)

FitnessBack from a long absence — 194 days off, fitness to prove

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 11%, jockey 11%

DrawDrawn 2 (low third) — favoured here (impact value 1.24)

Long layoff (194d)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

7 Hurricane Laughter Held up, comes late

Stall 4 · Trainer Ed Walker · Jockey Kieran Shoemark

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb.

Ability rating

62 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 13% · Jockey 10%

strike rate at Epsom

Last time out

RPR 62

most recent run

Last 4 starts — oldest to most recent

5695 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 1m 0½f (0 from 1)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 13%, jockey 10%

DrawDrawn 4 (mid third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.14)

8 Bennyworth Races prominently

Stall 6 · Trainer Jim Boyle · Jockey Sean D Bowen

Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb.

Ability rating

61 improving

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 8% · Jockey 5%

strike rate at Epsom

Last time out

RPR 56

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

827684 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 1m 0½f (0 from 4)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 8%, jockey 5%

DrawDrawn 6 (mid third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.14)

9 Letsbeatsepsis Races prominently

Stall 3 · Trainer Gary & Josh Moore · Jockey Rhys Clutterbuck

Reliable and on the up — placed in 3 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks; the stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

60 improving

recent best — career high 73 in 2024

This track

Trainer 20% · Jockey 10%

strike rate at Epsom

Last time out

RPR 53

most recent run

Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent

2263124 last time ←

GroundYet to win on firm (0 from 6)

DistanceUnproven at 1m 0½f (0 from 2)

Course2 runs at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 20%, jockey 10%

DrawDrawn 3 (low third) — favoured here (impact value 1.24)

Stable hot (7/18, 39%)

Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result

Figures from results history (RPR/TS), pace from running-style history, connections from trainer/jockey stats, breeding from sire aptitude. Shrunk for small samples. Information only, not betting advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.