Chepstow · 5:30pm
Flat (Turf)
1m 2f
GOOD TO FIRM (GoingStick: 7.9)
Class 6
3yo+
4 runners
Solid read
Aravalli is our pick, with Electric Bass the main danger.
Aravalli is the only confirmed front-runner in this small field and could set a steady pace if left alone in front. High draws hold a statistical edge over mid at Chepstow, with an impact value of 1.22 and a tendency to beat half the field on average. Aravalli, a course winner with a recent RPR of 68, rates a solid favourite but faces a live danger in Electric Bass, who posted a recent RPR of 64 and raced prominently before weakening late last time. Time After Time, another course winner, and Bumaan have both been held up in recent starts and finished well, posting RPRs of 66 and 57 respectively.
The key questions
How will the race be run?
Aravalli is the only confirmed front-runner, so expect a steady gallop the leader can control — a powerful setup if left alone up front.
Does the draw matter?
High draws are favoured over mid at Chepstow (impact value 1.22, beating 50% of rivals on average).
Who's the main danger?
Electric Bass is the chief threat to Aravalli.
Pace map — who goes forward, who waits
Leads 1
2Aravalli
Prominent 1
4Electric Bass
Mid-pack 0
—
Held up 2
1Bumaan
3Time After Time
Pace confidence: 100%
Draw & pace bias — impact value >1.0 = favoured
High draws are favoured over mid at Chepstow (impact value 1.22, beating 50% of rivals on average).
Low draw
IV 1.09
48% rivals beaten · n=157
Mid draw
IV 0.85
51% rivals beaten · n=178
High draw
IV 1.22
50% rivals beaten · n=239
What the data likes (our composite read — not tips)
No. 1 read
Aravalli
Likely to lead
Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb. The stable is in good heart at the track.
Ability rating
68 improving
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 13% · Jockey 12%
strike rate at Chepstow
Last time out
RPR 59
most recent run
Last 5 starts — oldest to most recent
74491
last time ←
DistanceUnproven at 1m 2f (0 from 2)
CourseCourse winner — 1 from 1 here
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 13%, jockey 12%
Stable hot (2/7, 29%)
2
Electric Bass
Races prominently
A model of consistency — placed in 3 of his last 6.
Ability rating
64 steady
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 9% · Jockey 0%
strike rate at Chepstow
Last time out
RPR 62
most recent run
Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent
255225
last time ←
DistanceUnproven at 1m 2f (0 from 4)
Course3 runs at the track without winning
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 9%, jockey 0%
Weakened in the closing stages last time
3
Bumaan
Held up, comes late
Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb.
Ability rating
57 improving
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 17% · Jockey 19%
strike rate at Chepstow
Last time out
RPR 57
most recent run
Last 4 starts — oldest to most recent
5692
last time ←
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 17%, jockey 19%
Kept on last time — a stronger gallop or longer trip may suit
4
Time After Time
Held up, comes late
Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb.
Ability rating
66 improving
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 11% · Jockey 12%
strike rate at Chepstow
Last time out
RPR 47
most recent run
Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent
5115116
last time ←
CourseCourse winner — 1 from 1 here
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 11%, jockey 12%
Kept on last time — a stronger gallop or longer trip may suit
Figures from results history (RPR/TS), pace from running-style history, connections from trainer/jockey stats, breeding from sire aptitude. Shrunk for small samples. Information only, not betting advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.