Chepstow · 5:00pm
Flat (Turf)
6f
GOOD TO FIRM (GoingStick: 7.9)
Class 5
4yo+
7 runners
Clear read
Connie's Rose stands out on our figures.
Field updated — 1 non-runner removed.
Connie's Rose is the only confirmed front-runner in this seven-runner field and could set a steady pace if left alone in front. Low draws have a statistical edge over this trip at Chepstow, with an impact value of 1.16 and a 51% average of beating rivals. Connie's Rose drops in class after weakening late last time and has previous course-winning form. On recent ratings, Serenity Dream looks the main danger, while Be An Angel and Some Nightmare also have claims, with the latter another course winner.
The key questions
How will the race be run?
Connie's Rose is the only confirmed front-runner, so expect a steady gallop the leader can control — a powerful setup if left alone up front.
Does the draw matter?
Low draws are favoured over sprint at Chepstow (impact value 1.16, beating 51% of rivals on average).
Anyone well-treated?
Connie's Rose drops in class — often a positive trainer angle.
Pace map — who goes forward, who waits
Leads 1
6Connie's Rose
Prominent 3
8Be An Angel
3Zoulu Warrior
5Vape
Mid-pack 1
1Serenity Dream
Held up 2
7Some Nightmare
4Outer Edge
Pace confidence: 100%
Draw & pace bias — impact value >1.0 = favoured
Low draws are favoured over sprint at Chepstow (impact value 1.16, beating 51% of rivals on average).
Low draw
IV 1.16
51% rivals beaten · n=115
Mid draw
IV 0.87
48% rivals beaten · n=135
High draw
IV 1.13
51% rivals beaten · n=183
What the data likes (our composite read — not tips)
No. 1 read
Connie's Rose
Likely to lead
Reliable and on the up — placed in 3 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing. Drops in class, often a positive sign.
Ability rating
82 improving
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 9% · Jockey 11%
strike rate at Chepstow
Last time out
RPR 82
most recent run
Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent
632724
last time ←
GroundYet to win on firm (0 from 10)
DistanceHas won around 6f — 1 from 10
CourseCourse winner — 1 from 13 here
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 9%, jockey 11%
DrawDrawn 6 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.13)
Drops in class (C4→C5)
Weakened in the closing stages last time
2
Serenity Dream
Settles midfield
Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb.
Ability rating
73 improving
recent best — career high 85 in 2024
This track
Trainer 10% · Jockey 19%
strike rate at Chepstow
Last time out
RPR 69
most recent run
Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent
638562
last time ←
DistanceEffective at the trip — won 2 of 9 around 6f
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 10%, jockey 19%
DrawDrawn 1 (low third) — favoured here (impact value 1.16)
3
Be An Angel
Races prominently
Going the right way — the form figures are on the climb. The stable is in good heart at the track.
Ability rating
62 improving
recent best — career high 72 in 2025
This track
Trainer 10% · Jockey 11%
strike rate at Chepstow
Last time out
RPR 62
most recent run
Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent
31011751
last time ←
GroundProven on firm — won 2 of 6
DistanceHas won around 6f — 2 from 13
Course1 run at the track without winning
FitnessQuick turnaround — back within 5 days
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 10%, jockey 11%
DrawDrawn 8 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.13)
Stable hot (5/20, 25%)
4
Some Nightmare
Held up, comes late
Holds solid claims on these figures.
Ability rating
57 steady
recent best — career high 85 in 2022
This track
Trainer 13% · Jockey 12%
strike rate at Chepstow
Last time out
RPR 53
most recent run
Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent
843543
last time ←
GroundHas won on firm — 2 from 16
DistanceHas won around 6f — 5 from 34
CourseCourse winner — 6 from 24 here
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 13%, jockey 12%
DrawDrawn 7 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.13)
5
Zoulu Warrior
Races prominently
A model of consistency — placed in 3 of his last 6.
Ability rating
74 regressing
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 11% · Jockey 9%
strike rate at Chepstow
Last time out
RPR 41
most recent run
Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent
2114714
last time ←
DistanceEffective at the trip — won 2 of 11 around 6f
CourseCourse winner — 1 from 1 here
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 11%, jockey 9%
DrawDrawn 3 (mid third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.87)
6
Vape
Races prominently
A model of consistency — placed in 3 of his last 6.
Ability rating
65 steady
recent best — career high 82 in 2023
This track
Trainer 5% · Jockey 0%
strike rate at Chepstow
Last time out
RPR 35
most recent run
Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent
11211104
last time ←
GroundHas won on firm — 1 from 16
DistanceHas won around 6f — 9 from 51
CourseCourse winner — 3 from 14 here
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 5%, jockey 0%
DrawDrawn 5 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.13)
Weakened in the closing stages last time
7
Outer Edge
Held up, comes late
Form has dipped a little of late, so needs to bounce back. The stable is in good heart at the track.
Ability rating
57 regressing
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 14% · Jockey 6%
strike rate at Chepstow
Last time out
RPR 40
most recent run
Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent
484454
last time ←
GroundProven on firm — won 1 of 5
DistanceHas won around 6f — 1 from 14
CourseCourse winner — 1 from 2 here
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 14%, jockey 6%
DrawDrawn 4 (mid third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.87)
Stable hot (3/8, 38%)
Figures from results history (RPR/TS), pace from running-style history, connections from trainer/jockey stats, breeding from sire aptitude. Shrunk for small samples. Information only, not betting advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.