Chepstow · 3:15pm

EBF / Ub40 Ft. Ali Campbell 24th July Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (EBF Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB Race)

Flat (Turf) 5f GOOD TO FIRM (GoingStick: 7.9) Class 4 2yo · F 9 runners

Solid read Percy Shaw is our pick, with Blondie Larry the main danger.

This 5f class 4 sprint at Chepstow features nine runners on firm ground, with no confirmed front-runner suggesting a muddling, tactical pace. Low draws hold a statistical edge here, with an impact value of 1.16 and a 51% rival-beating rate over this trip. Percy Shaw, lightly raced and with a recent RPR of 73, is respected for potential but did weaken late last time. Blondie Larry, the main danger, posted a recent RPR of 76 and finished off his race well on his latest start. Chilli (RPR 80) and Amber Ocean (RPR 64) also have form to consider, though both are likely to be ridden off the pace.

The key questions

How will the race be run?

No confirmed front-runner — likely a muddling, tactical gallop, where a handy early pitch and tactical speed matter.

Does the draw matter?

Low draws are favoured over sprint at Chepstow (impact value 1.16, beating 51% of rivals on average).

Any unexposed improver?

Percy Shaw is lightly-raced with a profile to progress — the type to respect on potential.

Who's the main danger?

Blondie Larry is the chief threat to Percy Shaw.

Pace map — who goes forward, who waits

Leads 0

—

Prominent 4

1Percy Shaw

7Amber Ocean

8Secret Rival

5Hailstones In May

Mid-pack 5

2Blondie Larry

4Chilli

6Chianti

3Cash Flow Boy

9Norham

Held up 0

—

Pace confidence: 11%

Draw & pace bias — impact value >1.0 = favoured

Low draws are favoured over sprint at Chepstow (impact value 1.16, beating 51% of rivals on average).

Low draw

IV 1.16

51% rivals beaten · n=115

Mid draw

IV 0.87

48% rivals beaten · n=135

High draw

IV 1.13

51% rivals beaten · n=183

What the data likes (our composite read — not tips)

No. 1 read Percy Shaw Races prominentlyest

Stall 1 · Trainer Charles Hills · Jockey Jason Watson

Holds solid claims on these figures.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 9% · Jockey 9%

strike rate at Chepstow

Last time out

RPR 73

most recent run

Last 2 starts — oldest to most recent

84 last time ←

GroundBred for it — the sire's runners strike at 12.3% on firm

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 9%, jockey 9%

DrawDrawn 1 (low third) — favoured here (impact value 1.16)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

2 Blondie Larry Settles midfieldest

Stall 2 · Trainer Jamie Osborne · Jockey Saffie Osborne

Holds solid claims on these figures.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 11% · Jockey 9%

strike rate at Chepstow

Last time out

RPR 74

most recent run

Last 2 starts — oldest to most recent

52 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 5f (0 from 2)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 11%, jockey 9%

DrawDrawn 2 (low third) — favoured here (impact value 1.16)

Kept on last time — a stronger gallop or longer trip may suit

3 Amber Ocean Races prominently

Stall 7 · Trainer Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole · Jockey Rossa Ryan

Holds solid claims on these figures.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 10% · Jockey 21%

strike rate at Chepstow

Last time out

RPR 64

most recent run

Last 1 start — oldest to most recent

2 last time ←

GroundBred for it — the sire's runners strike at 12.7% on firm

DistanceUnproven at 5f (0 from 1)

FitnessReturns from 101 days off the track

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 10%, jockey 21%

DrawDrawn 7 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.13)

Fresh (101d)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

4 Chilli Settles midfieldest

Stall 4 · Trainer Eve Johnson Houghton · Jockey Charles Bishop

Holds solid claims on these figures. The stable is in good heart at the track.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 9% · Jockey 7%

strike rate at Chepstow

Last time out

RPR 52

most recent run

Last 2 starts — oldest to most recent

48 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 5f (0 from 1)

Course1 run at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 9%, jockey 7%

DrawDrawn 4 (mid third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.87)

Stable hot (7/29, 24%)

5 Secret Rival Races prominentlyest

Stall 8 · Trainer Ed Walker · Jockey George Downing

Holds solid claims on these figures.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 13% · Jockey 8%

strike rate at Chepstow

Last time out

RPR 59

most recent run

Last 2 starts — oldest to most recent

86 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 5f (0 from 1)

Course1 run at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 13%, jockey 8%

DrawDrawn 8 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.13)

6 Chianti Settles midfieldest

Stall 6 · Trainer Archie Watson · Jockey Luke Morris

Holds solid claims on these figures.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 15% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at Chepstow

Last time out

RPR 56

most recent run

Last 2 starts — oldest to most recent

54 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 5f (0 from 2)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 15%, jockey 12%

DrawDrawn 6 (mid third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.87)

Weakened in the closing stages last time

7 Cash Flow Boy Settles midfieldest

Stall 3 · Trainer Charlie Pike · Jockey Thomas Greatrex

Holds solid claims on these figures. Met trouble in running last time, so he's better than that result looks.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 0% · Jockey 11%

strike rate at Chepstow

Last time out

RPR 42

most recent run

Last 1 start — oldest to most recent

7 last time ←

DistanceUnproven at 5f (0 from 1)

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 0%, jockey 11%

DrawDrawn 3 (low third) — favoured here (impact value 1.16)

Met trouble in running last time — better than the bare result

8 Hailstones In May Races prominentlyest

Stall 5 · Trainer Richard Hughes · Jockey Finley Marsh

Holds solid claims on these figures.

Ability rating

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 13% · Jockey 12%

strike rate at Chepstow

Last time out

RPR 17

most recent run

Last 2 starts — oldest to most recent

126 last time ←

GroundBred for it — the sire's runners strike at 14.9% on firm

DistanceUnproven at 5f (0 from 1)

Course1 run at the track without winning

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 13%, jockey 12%

DrawDrawn 5 (mid third) — a fair draw (impact value 0.87)

9 Norham Settles midfieldest

Stall 9 · Trainer Adam Kirby · Jockey Pat Cosgrave

A newcomer to the form book — judged on stable and breeding.

Ability rating

—

Racing Post Rating, recent form

This track

Trainer 7% · Jockey 11%

strike rate at Chepstow

Last time out

—

most recent run

ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 7%, jockey 11%

DrawDrawn 9 (high third) — a fair draw (impact value 1.13)

Figures from results history (RPR/TS), pace from running-style history, connections from trainer/jockey stats, breeding from sire aptitude. Shrunk for small samples. Information only, not betting advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.