Chepstow · 2:40pm
Flat (Turf)
5f
GOOD TO FIRM (GoingStick: 7.9)
Class 5
4yo+
4 runners
Clear read
Savannah Smiles stands out on our figures.
Field updated — 1 non-runner removed.
So Smart is the only confirmed front-runner and could control a steady pace if left alone up front. Low draws have a measurable advantage in Chepstow sprints, with an impact value of 1.16 and a 51% average of beating rivals. Savannah Smiles stands out on recent form, posting a recent RPR of 68, and is a course winner who races prominently and handles firm ground. River Edge is lightly raced and has the profile to progress, while Dragon God and River Edge both weakened late on their latest starts. So Smart, with a recent RPR of 64, is also a course winner and the main danger to Savannah Smiles.
The key questions
How will the race be run?
So Smart is the only confirmed front-runner, so expect a steady gallop the leader can control — a powerful setup if left alone up front.
Does the draw matter?
Low draws are favoured over sprint at Chepstow (impact value 1.16, beating 51% of rivals on average).
Any unexposed improver?
River Edge is lightly-raced with a profile to progress — the type to respect on potential.
Pace map — who goes forward, who waits
Leads 1
4So Smart
Prominent 2
3Savannah Smiles
5River Edge
Mid-pack 0
—
Held up 1
2Dragon God
Pace confidence: 75%
Draw & pace bias — impact value >1.0 = favoured
Low draws are favoured over sprint at Chepstow (impact value 1.16, beating 51% of rivals on average).
Low draw
IV 1.16
51% rivals beaten · n=115
Mid draw
IV 0.87
48% rivals beaten · n=135
High draw
IV 1.13
51% rivals beaten · n=183
What the data likes (our composite read — not tips)
No. 1 read
Savannah Smiles
Races prominently
Reliable and on the up — placed in 3 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing.
Ability rating
68 improving
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 9% · Jockey 16%
strike rate at Chepstow
Last time out
RPR 68
most recent run
Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent
776231
last time ←
GroundProven on firm — won 2 of 11
DistanceHas won around 5f — 2 from 22
CourseCourse winner — 3 from 17 here
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 9%, jockey 16%
2
So Smart
Likely to lead
A model of consistency — placed in 3 of his last 6.
Ability rating
64 regressing
recent best — career high 87 in 2023
This track
Trainer 9% · Jockey 11%
strike rate at Chepstow
Last time out
RPR 50
most recent run
Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent
653343
last time ←
GroundHas won on firm — 2 from 22
DistanceHas won around 5f — 5 from 70
CourseCourse winner — 1 from 11 here
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 9%, jockey 11%
3
Dragon God
Held up, comes late
Reliable and on the up — placed in 3 of his last 6, with the form figures climbing.
Ability rating
59 improving
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 10% · Jockey 14%
strike rate at Chepstow
Last time out
RPR 59
most recent run
Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent
933652
last time ←
GroundYet to win on firm (0 from 4)
DistanceUnproven at 5f (0 from 4)
Course2 runs at the track without winning
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 10%, jockey 14%
Weakened in the closing stages last time
4
River Edge
Races prominentlyest
Holds solid claims on these figures. The stable is in good heart at the track.
Ability rating
52
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 14% · Jockey 17%
strike rate at Chepstow
Last time out
RPR 52
most recent run
Last 1 start — oldest to most recent
3
last time ←
GroundBred for it — the sire's runners strike at 15.9% on firm
DistanceUnproven at 5f (0 from 1)
Course1 run at the track without winning
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 14%, jockey 17%
Stable hot (3/8, 38%)
Weakened in the closing stages last time
Figures from results history (RPR/TS), pace from running-style history, connections from trainer/jockey stats, breeding from sire aptitude. Shrunk for small samples. Information only, not betting advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.