Chepstow · 2:05pm
Flat (Turf)
1m
GOOD TO FIRM (GoingStick: 7.9)
Class 4
3yo+ · F
3 runners
Solid read
Quisana is our pick, with Lyrics Of Life the main danger.
Lyrics Of Life is the only confirmed front-runner and could dictate a steady pace if left alone in front. High draws hold a statistical edge at Chepstow, with an impact value of 1.22. Quisana arrives with a recent RPR of 87 and remains open to further progress. Lyrics Of Life, rated 80 last time, drops in class and poses the main threat to Quisana. Fallen Logic, with a recent RPR of 10, has more to prove on recent evidence.
The key questions
How will the race be run?
Lyrics Of Life is the only confirmed front-runner, so expect a steady gallop the leader can control — a powerful setup if left alone up front.
Does the draw matter?
High draws are favoured over mid at Chepstow (impact value 1.22, beating 50% of rivals on average).
Any unexposed improver?
Quisana is lightly-raced with a profile to progress — the type to respect on potential.
Anyone well-treated?
Lyrics Of Life drops in class — often a positive trainer angle.
Who's the main danger?
Lyrics Of Life is the chief threat to Quisana, dropping in class.
Pace map — who goes forward, who waits
Leads 1
3Lyrics Of Life
Prominent 1
2Quisana
Mid-pack 0
—
Held up 0
—
Pace confidence: 67%
Draw & pace bias — impact value >1.0 = favoured
High draws are favoured over mid at Chepstow (impact value 1.22, beating 50% of rivals on average).
Low draw
IV 1.09
48% rivals beaten · n=157
Mid draw
IV 0.85
51% rivals beaten · n=178
High draw
IV 1.22
50% rivals beaten · n=239
What the data likes (our composite read — not tips)
No. 1 read
Quisana
Races prominently
Form has dipped a little of late, so needs to bounce back. The stable is in good heart at the track.
Ability rating
87 regressing
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 9% · Jockey 7%
strike rate at Chepstow
Last time out
RPR 73
most recent run
Last 3 starts — oldest to most recent
425
last time ←
GroundBred for it — the sire's runners strike at 15.6% on firm
DistanceUnproven at 1m (0 from 1)
Course1 run at the track without winning
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 9%, jockey 7%
Stable hot (7/29, 24%)
2
Lyrics Of Life
Likely to lead
A model of consistency — placed in 4 of his last 6. Drops in class, often a positive sign.
Ability rating
80 regressing
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 8% · Jockey 9%
strike rate at Chepstow
Last time out
RPR 66
most recent run
Last 6 starts — oldest to most recent
5222321
last time ←
GroundYet to win on firm (0 from 4)
DistanceUnproven at 1m (0 from 5)
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 8%, jockey 9%
Drops in class (C2→C4)
3
Fallen Logic
Run-style unknown
Holds solid claims on these figures.
Ability rating
10
Racing Post Rating, recent form
This track
Trainer 9% · Jockey 8%
strike rate at Chepstow
Last time out
RPR 10
most recent run
Last 1 start — oldest to most recent
8
last time ←
DistanceUnproven at 1m (0 from 1)
ConnectionsAt this course: trainer 9%, jockey 8%
Figures from results history (RPR/TS), pace from running-style history, connections from trainer/jockey stats, breeding from sire aptitude. Shrunk for small samples. Information only, not betting advice. 18+. BeGambleAware.org.