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Kempton (AW) Draw Bias

Does the draw matter at Kempton (AW)? · 4,139 races analysed · updated July 2026

Low draws hold a clear edge at Kempton (AW) — most pronounced over 13f+, where low stalls win 39% of races against just 29% for high stalls (an even draw would be ~33% each).

Kempton (AW) win rate by stall & distance

Each row splits the draw into low, middle and high thirds relative to the field size, then shows how often each third actually wins. With no draw bias every third would win ~33%.

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DistanceRacesLow stalls winMiddleHigh stalls win
5f–6f (sprints) 886 37% 35% 28%
7f–8f (mile) 2,219 33% 33% 34%
9f–12f (middle) 830 30% 35% 35%
13f+ (staying) 204 39% 32% 29%

Green = a meaningful edge (≥6 points above the opposite third). Figures from our settled-results database, all Kempton (AW) races with 8+ runners.

How to use this

If a distance shows a strong high- or low-draw edge, it's a genuine factor to weigh — a well-drawn horse gets a head start, a badly-drawn one needs to be good enough to overcome it. Our model already bakes draw into every Kempton (AW) selection, so you don't have to: see today's Kempton (AW) tips, or the full Kempton (AW) form guide.

Why trust these numbers

This isn't a pundit's hunch. It's every Kempton (AW) race in our database, settled from official results, recomputed automatically. The same engine that measures this draw bias scores every runner at Kempton (AW) each morning — logged before the off, win or lose, on our public track record.

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